[Back to Ukraine]
We had another discussion about Ukraine last night (17 April 2025, for the record), and we can't see any plausible way to end the war, either by military or political means. Our suspicions about US surveillance seem to have been confirmed, as within hours of our discussion, the White House starts to admit that they can't see a way forward and are planning to pull out of the 'peace talks' unless the warring parties have a change of heart real soon.
The problem with a peace deal at this point is that it cannot look like a Russian victory, and Putin cannot afford to end the war with anything other than a victory. So they will keep fighting.
But every war comes to an end, one way or another. At the moment, the most plausible option is that economic problems, along with the social unrest caused by these problems, will turn the people away from Putin, and the oligarchs - Putin's 'inner circle' - find that they can no longer make money with the economy in crisis, so Putin either takes a comfortable retirement in his dacha or has an unfortunate accident, maybe tripping on the stairs one night. His replacement may be even worse as a dictator, but will find a face-saving way to end this disastrous war.
Because the war is a disaster for the Russian economy. There is massive inflation, so real incomes are falling; the economy is on a 'war footing', so little is being made which does not directly contribute to the war; sanctions mean they can't import enough, so ordinary people cannot afford to buy anything and what they can afford is probably not available anyway. This can only continue for so long before people get desperate enough to complain, whatever the risks.
Putin was the strong man who rescued the country from the chaos after the fall of communism, and the people generally loved him for the success and stability he brought. But, while they are grateful for what he accomplished, if they become worse off then they were before he rescued them, that gratitude is unlikely to survive for long.
Putin has only survived this long because he controls the media. One of the key factors in the battle against communism in the 1970 and 1980s was information: many outside Russia found ways to support dissidents and the underground presses which which circulated accurate news and subversive ideas. There are many more ways to communicate with ordinary Russians today: perhaps we need to work harder at identifying them, and building those channels of communication?
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