[Back to Ukraine]
On the campaign trail, Trump promised to end the Ukraine war within 24 hours of taking office. This was clearly never going to happen but, as I said (probably, far too often), ending the war was one promise I believed he was able to keep.
The war is an utter disaster for both Ukraine and Russia. Ukraine has lost (to date) around 20% of her previous territory, and is being steadily pushed back. Despite losing a chunk of their own territory, Russia is clearly winning the war, but very slowly and at a dreadful cost. Russia has lost maybe 850,000 soldiers killed and wounded; an additional 900,000 people have left Russia, many of them young men afraid of being conscripted; the interest rate is 21%; GDP is growing, but only because the country is spending so much on weapons and ammunition; a combination of these factors and the economic sanctions mean the real economy is in ruins - hardly anything creative, worthwhile or beneficial to the people of Russia is happening, because there is no money and no people to do it - and the cost is mounting up daily.
So why is the war continuing? In part, politics - neither side can afford to admit the truth, neither side can afford to admit they need it to stop. In part, because - up to now - Ukraine has been supported by the USA and, to a lesser extent, Europe. They have been very happy to fight a proxy war with Russia: we send weapons and ammunition, and only Ukranians and Russians get killed, while the Russian economy gets progressively weaker and will take decades to recover.
Things have changed a little recently, but we (both Europe and the USA) have been careful to give Ukraine nearly adequate supplies to defend themselves with, but very little to attack with, and any missiles were not to be used against Russian territory: we don't want Ukraine to win the war (who knows what Putin might do then?), but we are happy for them to keep fighting and dying and in the process and weakening Russia.
So the USA is funding the war, to a sufficient extent, so they can stop the war. Meet Putin, and make him an offer he can't refuse: tell him he can claim victory, but if he refuses to stop fighting then Ukraine gets supplied with the ability to attack deep into Russian territory. Meet Zelenskyy, and tell him he can claim to have fought the Russians to a standstill, but if he refuses then USA support will stop immediately. There will be details to sort out, and it's unlikely to be wrapped up in 24 hours, but neither side can afford to say no - either from an economic perspective, or from a political and PR perspective.
Of course, it turns out that Trump is not as good at making deals as he claimed, and a simple 'threats in private, smiles in public' strategy is getting undermined by public criticism.
Comments