Well, Trump has won. Actually I am not surprised, over the last few weeks I have become increasingly pessimistic about any other result. But it shouldn't be a surprise: the fact is that British and European liberals find it increasingly difficult to understand Americans. In the 2000s, George W Bush was continually the target of British comedians: but Americans never bought the "Bush as Idiot" line. Admittedly, since The USA is so polarised, American liberals and the Democratic Party are even more shell-shocked than Europeans. But American Republicans very often say that they don't approve of Trump's behaviour but they like his poiicies.
I would have voted for Harris, on the basis that the boring but predictable candidate is the safest, as well as because her values are closer to mine. But Harris was hardly inspiring, and was unable to answer the questions about why she hadn't already done what she was promising: that is a problem for any incumbent politician at an election. But any party with a charismatic leader has a massive advantage.
Most analysts say that Biden hung onto power for far too long. And when he did go, for the party to nominate someone other than Harris as a presidential candidate, would have been a terrible optic given that the person would probably have been a white male. And then Harris would have been criticised if she distanced herself from Biden, for being disloyal and inconsistent, just as she was actually criticised for staying too close to his policies.
The BBC interviewed some ordinary Americans and asked why they thought Trump had won, and without exception they said it was the economy: they are concerned about rising prices. That matters to them far more than, say, transgender rights, which was the sort of thing that Harris is perceived as standing for. That issue doesn't matter to most Americans. Being free to carry guns does. Trump got an increased share of the black and Hispanic votes; presumably they don't consider him as racist, which is a frequent accusation.
I hope Trump doesn't pull the plug on Ukraine. But he is probably right in that there will need to be a negotiated peace. He is certainly right that Ukraine has no right to Crimea, which was Russian until 1952 when Stalin transferred it to Ukraine, and I would like to be more sure that the inhabitants of the Eastern Donbas region really were pro-Ukraine rather than pro-Russian: but of course Russia tried to invade the whole of Ukraine which was clearly wrong. On Israel, the extent to which he supports Israel will depend on how much influence the pro-Israel Evangelical Christian lobby have on him. And that is another area where liberal Brits are out of step with most Americans: Netanyahu is undoubtedly guilty of war crimes: but remember who started it. Hamas have as their objective the total destruction of Israel, which they proved on October 7th 2023, and the only reason they are not killing more Israelis is that they don't have the firepower or other means to do so. Being appalled by the plight of the civilians in Gaza and Lebanon, which I am, is not the same as supporting Hamas and Hezbollah. For a start, you would have to be transphobic and homophobic to agree with the worldview of Hamas and Hezbollah. I have huge reservations about Trump and Netanyahu, but virtue-signalling by people who only see one side annoys me.
The greatest concern about Trump is his attitude to the environment and climate change: giving licences for oil-drilling in the Arctic for instance.. That will cause far more destruction to the human race than any other blind spot of his. (Though his antipathy to electric vehicles may change now that Elon Musk is on board).
Our best hope is that Trump will function as a pragmatist rather than an ideologue. He may be able to pull off some kind of peace in both Ukraine and the Middle East. He has already disappointed some of his supporters by being ambivalent on the abortion issue. He may well disappoint a lot more if his tariffs cause prices in US shops to rise even further. And repatriating millions of immigrants by force is just not going to be practial, let alone legal.
The danger with pragamatist dictators is that having no actual beliefs, they will resort to whatever it takes to stay in power. At worst, if things do not go his way, or he is influenced by those of the extreme right with actual beliefs (the 2025 agenda of the Christian Right), he will double down on retaining power.
If I was still in the Plymouth Brethren, I would now be looking at the looming of Armageddon and the Return of Christ. In Revelation, Israel is attacked by the King of the North (Russia) and the King of the East (Iran and/or China), and a nuclear war ensues. Before that the Anti-Christ is revealed: the Lawless one who demands worship; the ten-headed Beast, of populist dictators around the world - Trump, Putin, Netanyahu, Xi, Khomeini - and one of the heads of the Beast has suffered a head wound but recovered. Trump himself has said that God protected him from assassination. And you can bet that there are Christian leaders in America who believe all this, and are actively working to promote a confrontation between Israel and the Islamic world, to speed the Second Coming. I hope they are wrong.
I would have voted for Harris, on the basis that the boring but predictable candidate is the safest, as well as because her values are closer to mine. But Harris was hardly inspiring, and was unable to answer the questions about why she hadn't already done what she was promising: that is a problem for any incumbent politician at an election. But any party with a charismatic leader has a massive advantage.
Most analysts say that Biden hung onto power for far too long. And when he did go, for the party to nominate someone other than Harris as a presidential candidate, would have been a terrible optic given that the person would probably have been a white male. And then Harris would have been criticised if she distanced herself from Biden, for being disloyal and inconsistent, just as she was actually criticised for staying too close to his policies.
The BBC interviewed some ordinary Americans and asked why they thought Trump had won, and without exception they said it was the economy: they are concerned about rising prices. That matters to them far more than, say, transgender rights, which was the sort of thing that Harris is perceived as standing for. That issue doesn't matter to most Americans. Being free to carry guns does. Trump got an increased share of the black and Hispanic votes; presumably they don't consider him as racist, which is a frequent accusation.
I hope Trump doesn't pull the plug on Ukraine. But he is probably right in that there will need to be a negotiated peace. He is certainly right that Ukraine has no right to Crimea, which was Russian until 1952 when Stalin transferred it to Ukraine, and I would like to be more sure that the inhabitants of the Eastern Donbas region really were pro-Ukraine rather than pro-Russian: but of course Russia tried to invade the whole of Ukraine which was clearly wrong. On Israel, the extent to which he supports Israel will depend on how much influence the pro-Israel Evangelical Christian lobby have on him. And that is another area where liberal Brits are out of step with most Americans: Netanyahu is undoubtedly guilty of war crimes: but remember who started it. Hamas have as their objective the total destruction of Israel, which they proved on October 7th 2023, and the only reason they are not killing more Israelis is that they don't have the firepower or other means to do so. Being appalled by the plight of the civilians in Gaza and Lebanon, which I am, is not the same as supporting Hamas and Hezbollah. For a start, you would have to be transphobic and homophobic to agree with the worldview of Hamas and Hezbollah. I have huge reservations about Trump and Netanyahu, but virtue-signalling by people who only see one side annoys me.
The greatest concern about Trump is his attitude to the environment and climate change: giving licences for oil-drilling in the Arctic for instance.. That will cause far more destruction to the human race than any other blind spot of his. (Though his antipathy to electric vehicles may change now that Elon Musk is on board).
Our best hope is that Trump will function as a pragmatist rather than an ideologue. He may be able to pull off some kind of peace in both Ukraine and the Middle East. He has already disappointed some of his supporters by being ambivalent on the abortion issue. He may well disappoint a lot more if his tariffs cause prices in US shops to rise even further. And repatriating millions of immigrants by force is just not going to be practial, let alone legal.
The danger with pragamatist dictators is that having no actual beliefs, they will resort to whatever it takes to stay in power. At worst, if things do not go his way, or he is influenced by those of the extreme right with actual beliefs (the 2025 agenda of the Christian Right), he will double down on retaining power.
If I was still in the Plymouth Brethren, I would now be looking at the looming of Armageddon and the Return of Christ. In Revelation, Israel is attacked by the King of the North (Russia) and the King of the East (Iran and/or China), and a nuclear war ensues. Before that the Anti-Christ is revealed: the Lawless one who demands worship; the ten-headed Beast, of populist dictators around the world - Trump, Putin, Netanyahu, Xi, Khomeini - and one of the heads of the Beast has suffered a head wound but recovered. Trump himself has said that God protected him from assassination. And you can bet that there are Christian leaders in America who believe all this, and are actively working to promote a confrontation between Israel and the Islamic world, to speed the Second Coming. I hope they are wrong.
Comments
Thanks for posting; I agree with most of what you say here. I would have been astonished if Harris had won: as you point out, most Americans say the economy was better under Trump, and they are suffering from inflation under Biden. Also, many of them are very concerned about immigration. Harris has almost no track record of success and achievement; if Biden had stepped down sooner, they could have held an election to choose the Democrat candidate, and that would have made a difference - although, perhaps not enough. She was tainted by her involvement in the problems of the Biden administration, her failure to distance herself from them, and her lack of clarity about what she would do differently. Also, she is black, and a large part of America is still deeply racist; and she is female, and possibly an even larger part of America is sexist. I heard various interviews with black men who said, in effect, they would rather vote for a white man than a black woman.
Let's hope that Musk can convince Trump that electric cars are a Good Thing.
Musk is playing a game with the US government, which I think he will walk away from at some point once he has completely dominated. He fundamentally has no ambition to sort out the Federal government's finances except where he can make more money out of them. He is simply using his much-vaunted position to disrupt those regulatory government agencies with which his companies regularly battle (e.g., the FAA for SpaceX, NHTSA for Tesla). Once Musk has completely and totally destroyed them with a whisper in the ear of DJT, he will likely wander off, leaving the rest of it to Vivek Ramaswamy. The only risk for Musk is that those agencies make a reappearance in some other guise at a later date.
Maybe.
PS: DJT doesn't mention Tesla but does mention SpaceX. My guess is that Musk has wisely avoided highlighting and rubbing in that obvious contradiction about the relationship with DJT. For his part, and true to form, Musk is being foolishly naive - If DJT needs to ditch Musk, all he needs to do is cosy up to Ford Motor Co and rubbish Tesla. Easy come, easy go. DJT ever really accepting EVs is, I think, highly unlikely. They are too expensive at present for DJTs typical base supporter. The same is true about AI - DJT is more likely to recognise the political fallout from people losing jobs due to AI, etc.
I follow your logic... but from this perspective, where does Trump's and Musk's love affair with Bitcoin fit? I don't see most of Trump's supporters investing in it...